The Report Predicts:By the end of 2020, China's Coal Production To Reach 3.7 Billion Tons. 22 May 2019



The share of coal in primary energy production has dropped from 78.2% in 2015 to 69.7% in 2018. The share of coal in total energy consumption has fallen from 68.1% in 2015 to 59.0% in 2018. The proportion of energy production and consumption structure has been decreasing year by year.” Recently, the Coal Industry Planning and Design Institute released the “China's coal industry “13th Five-Year” coal control mid-term evaluation and later outlook” implementation report, the first half of the “13th Five-Year Plan” During the period, China's coal control work has achieved remarkable results. According to the report, in the later period of the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”, the proportion of coal production and consumption in the energy structure will gradually decrease.


Controlling the total amount of coal consumption and optimizing the energy structure are major measures to improve environmental quality and achieve green development. Since the "13th Five-Year Plan", China has continued to promote coal control work and achieved good results.


The report pointed out that in terms of scientific production capacity, in the middle and early period of the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”, with the backward production capacity of coal being continuously eliminated and the high-quality production capacity being released continuously, the safety indicators, high-efficiency indicators and green indicators of Chinese coal enterprises all showed a certain increase and higher than that of coal control. The scenario, the proportion of scientific production capacity and the average score of scientific production capacity also increased year by year and were higher than the coal control scenario.


From the perspective of coal production, coal production was significantly compressed from 2016 to 2017, coal production did not exceed the coal control scenario output, and coal control scenario indicators were completed. In 2018, coal production was driven by concentrated development and development, high-quality production capacity release, and downstream consumption growth. Raw coal production exceeded coal control scenarios for the first time.


In terms of coal mine safety production, in the middle and early period of the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”, China’s coal mine safety production work has made great progress. The death toll of coal mine safety production accidents and the death rate of one million tons have dropped rapidly. In 2018, the death rate of millions of tons in the coal industry has reached the level of developed countries in the world.


"Overall, the coal control project has achieved remarkable results in the middle of the '13th Five-Year Plan'. The proportion of coal in energy production and consumption structure has been declining year by year. The proportion and score of coal science production capacity has increased year by year. Industrial safety production accidents and deaths The number of people has dropped year by year," said Wu Lixin, dean of the Strategic Planning Institute of the Coal Industry Planning and Design Institute.



In response to the development situation of the coal industry in the late 13th Five-Year Plan, the report analyzes that the layout of the coal industry will move further westward, and the industrial concentration will be further improved. The optimization of the production capacity structure will become the main tone for resolving the excess capacity of coal.


Wu Lixin believes that by 2020, coal production in the three provinces will account for about 70% of China's coal production, and industrial concentration will further increase.


On the basis of the National Energy Administration's announcement No. 10 of 2018, combined with the actual energy production of the coal industry from 2016 to 2018 and the existing coal mine structure, it is estimated that the coal industry will still have about 180 million tons from 2019 to 2020. Capacity space. Combined with the actual coal mine composition in each region, the de-capacity standards in each region, and the demand for regional coal supply, it is expected that by 2020, China's coal production will be in a period of platform volatility.


The report predicts that by the end of 2020, China's production and construction of coal mines will have a total production capacity of 4.5 billion to 4.7 billion tons, coal production of 3.7 billion tons, and industry capacity utilization rate of more than 75%. The problem of overcapacity will be basically solved. By then, the number of coal mines will be further reduced to about 5,000. The total production capacity of coal enterprises with a production capacity of 50 million tons/year will account for about 44% of China's total production capacity. The number of coal mines only accounts for about 15% of the number of coal mines in China. The concentration has been greatly improved and the industry structure has been rationally optimized.