The 16th Coaltrans China Held in Beijing - Leading the Development Direction of Coal Industry 27 Apr 2018
From April 10 to April 11, 2018, the 16th Coaltrans China, which was co-sponsored by National Center for International Cooperation in Work Safety and Coaltrans Conference Company of the United Kingdom, was held in Beijing with the topic of “Coal Industry Development in the New Era”.
Nearly 500 representatives from China, the United States, Russia, Australia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and other countries and regions attended the conference, including more than 100 international representatives.
In response to the new development situation and market demand of coal industry, this conference takes global and Chinese energy market development trends, coal supply-side structural reforms, coal and steel capacity reduction, imported coal trade internet thinking, shipping market trends, coal prices index, as well as hot topics such as the integration of coal, electricity, steel, logistics, and finance, are the main contents. A special field for thermal coal has been newly established to analyze and predict the coal market in China and the world.
Tian Hui, vice president of the China Coal Industry Association, pointed out that There are support in the short term, difficulties in the medium term and opportunities in the long term for China's coal industry. The reasons for the recent support are that the macro economy has driven demand, and that capacity reduction has inhibited the release of production. This has caused a structural shortage of coal, which has gradually eased recently and coal has completely entered the market economy. As long as it fully enters the market, the supply must be greater than the demand. Its half-cycle is about 5 years, and the entire cycle is about 10 years. Since China’s economic aggregation and growth rate determine our demand for total energy, China also have the characteristics of “rich coal, lean oil, and low gas” in terms of energy generation conditions, as well as the clean-utilization, economic efficiency, and the need for security, China's coal base energy status will remain difficult to be replaced by other energy sources for a long time.
Ling Wen, deputy secretary and general manager of the National Energy Group and Academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, pointed out in his speech that at present, the global energy development is undergoing major revolutions, consumption growth has slowed down significantly, the pace of green and low-carbon transformation has accelerated, and the energy technology revolution has been surging. It has become a strategic highland for a new round of technological revolution. To achieve high-quality development in the coal industry, it is necessary to comply with the world's energy transformation trend, based on the status quo of China's resource endowments, and strengthen the self-confidence and responsibility of the main energy, closely focus on “one goal” and actively promote the “five changes”. "One goal": clean and efficient use of coal. “Five transformations”: the transition from speed-oriented to quality-effectiveness in the development goals; the driving force from the factor-driven to the innovation-driven in the development momentum; the transformation of the entire industrial chain to the green and low-carbon transformation in the development mode; the development path shift from scale expansion to structural upgrade; development layout actively responds to national strategies, face the global layout, and enhance the level of internationalization.
Niu Jianhua, president of China National Coal Energy Co., Ltd., said that the current world energy supply structure is undergoing in-depth adjustment, and energy supply is increasingly diversified and clean. The development of green, low-carbon, high-efficiency, and renewable energy has become an important trend in energy development. The energy supply pattern in China is also undergoing an accelerated transformation, but China's energy resources endowment determines that the main energy position of coal will not change in the short term. As the reforms deepen, the quality and efficiency of the coal supply system will continue to increase.
Tu Jianjun, director of IEA China, pointed out that during the period from 2000 to 2013, global coal demand showed a strong growth trend, followed by a decline in growth. At this stage, coal demand will be stable at the current level. Until 2022, global coal demand will stagnate. Demand for coal in China will gradually decline. As demand changes, it will fluctuate every year. The growth of global coal industry will be mainly concentrated in India, Southeast Asia and several other Asian countries. International trade may shrink, and the uncertainty is highest in history. China still ranks first in the world in clean energy investment. China’s successful transition to clean energy and the implementation of the “Belt and Road” initiative is crucial to the future development of coal in China and other countries.
Rodrigo Echeveli, chief coal analyst of Noble Group, pointed out that the global coal market in 2017 had generally strong demand, but the efforts were different. Russia, the United States, and Indonesia have increased their coal supply. In 2018, China's economy will grow steadily, and a significant increase in power generation will indicate a strong economy. Hydropower generation may pose a threat to coal power generation. The Indian economy has been developing rapidly since the fourth quarter of 2017. It is expected that the output of crude steel in India will increase by 8.1% in the same period of last year in 2018. At the same time, the cement production also increases rapidly. Accelerated production in the steel industry and other heavy industries will drive power generation. The growth of coal production in India cannot meet the growth in demand, and its economic development and insufficient domestic production will drive coal imports. The global coal market is expected to grow by 44 million tons in 2018, a year-on-year increase of 5%. If the United States, Russia and other coal supply countries increase production, they may suppress prices in the short term. Indonesia will increase coal production, but domestic coal consumption may affect coal exports. The current coal price is the balance between market supply and demand. If coal prices continue to fall, it indicates that the coal market has entered oversold areas.
Michelle Liang, Asia's basic material and coal analyst at the Bloomberg Think Tank Analysis Center, analyzed that China will achieve the following goals through supply-side structural reforms: 10 coal mines with a capacity of over 100 million tons, and a production capacity of 50 million tons. There are 15 coal mine enterprises above, and the number of state-owned coal mine enterprises has been reduced from 100 to 40. By the end of 2016, China had participated in 240 power projects in 25 countries with a total installed capacity of 251 GW, but the newly started coal-fired power generation capacity continued to decline. India’s share of solar energy rose from 15% to 34%, and the growth of renewable energy exceeded the growth of coal for the first time.
The convening of 16th Coaltrans China is of great significance in guiding the development direction of coal industry, promoting the energy revolution, promoting the structural reform of the coal supply side, and building a green, safe, and efficient modern coal industry system.